Murdoch’s Paywall

Published on July 5, 2010

I want to quickly put an unpopular opinion on record. I have a strong suspicion that Murdoch’s decision to charge for access to The Times Online will not fail.

Clay Shirky, says the opposite here: http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/2010/jul/05/clay-shirky-internet-television-newspapers I have read a lot in the last few months which takes it for granted that the paywall experiment will fail. The blogosphere has decreed that Murdoch does not ‘get’ the internet.

I am not so sure. My reasons are as follows:

1. Murdoch is very rich. Clay Shirky is not. Clay Shirky claims to have done the maths, and found that the numbers do not add up. I hope I can be forgiven for trusting the maths of a billionaire, especially when counting money.

2. Murdoch has done this before, with great success. In 1993, Murdoch brought Sky TV to Britain. Satellite television was quickly established as a national joke. The quality was poor, the monthly costs were high, and the papers gleefully reported years of huge losses. Why would people start paying for something – television – they could get (without paying extra) from the BBC, widely considered one of the best broadcasting organisations in the world?

But Murdoch is patient, and has deep pockets.

Now, Sky TV is massively profitable, and, relying less on advertising revenue, has come out of the recession stronger than ever.

Also in Murdoch’s favour is the recent arrival of a very conservative Conservative government, many members of which are openly hostile to the BBC.

I hope I am wrong, and the Mr Shirky is right. But despite what everyone is saying, Murdoch is not stupid.